The CIS’s pre-election opinion poll, published on Thursday, predicts a victory for the PSOE in the upcoming elections in the Canary Islands constituencies, with twice as many seats as the PP, which is tied with Vox, whilst Unidad del Pueblo Canario (UPC) is projected to win two seats and CC-Primero Canarias would fail to win any seats.
Across Spain as a whole, the CIS poll predicts a victory for the PSOE in the forthcoming elections, with between 134 and 143 seats, whilst the PP and Vox are each projected to win a range of seats that would in no case amount to an absolute majority in Congress.
Of the fifteen seats allocated to the Canary Islands, the PSOE is expected to win between 6 and 8; the PP, between 3 and 4; Vox, between 3 and 4; the UPC, between 0 and 2; and CC-Primero Canarias, none, according to the forecast by the Centre for Sociological Research.
Canary Islands: PSOE leads in both provinces
In the province of Las Palmas, the poll predicts that the PSOE will win between 3 and 4 seats; the PP, two; Vox, two; and Unidad del Pueblo Canario, between 0 and 1.
In Santa Cruz de Tenerife, the PSOE is expected to win between 3 and 4 seats; the PP, between 1 and 2; Vox, between 1 and 2; and the UPC, between 0 and 1.
The figures for the Canary Islands as a whole are calculated by adding together the upper and lower limits of the provincial ranges. In Las Palmas, the PSOE and the UPC are set to contest the last of the eight seats, whilst in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, where seven members of parliament are elected, Coalición Canaria would lose the seat it won in 2023.
The PSOE is well ahead of Vox in terms of direct voting intentions
When asked directly how they would vote, 28.4 per cent of those surveyed in the Canary Islands said they would vote for the PSOE in the general election on 29 November, 17.3 per cent mentioned Vox and 14.9 per cent the PP.
6.6 per cent are backing UPC, 3.4 per cent CC-Primero Canarias and 2.1 per cent Se Acabó la Fiesta.
Following ‚Se Acabó la Fiesta‘, 0.3 per cent of those surveyed in the Canary Islands say they would vote for the Workers‘ Front, 0.2 per cent for PACMA and a further 0.2 per cent for Drago Canarias Verdes.
These percentages reflect the respondents‘ spontaneous answers to the question of which party they would vote for.
Across the Canary Islands as a whole, 18.4 per cent are still undecided about who to vote for and 3 per cent did not answer.
Las Palmas and Tenerife show similar party preferences
In Las Palmas, 29.2 per cent say they would vote for the PSOE, 18 per cent for Vox and 14.9 per cent for the PP.
UPC accounts for 6.5 per cent of the responses and CC-Primero Canarias for 3 per cent in the eastern province, whilst 17.4 per cent of those surveyed in this province do not yet know who they will vote for.
In Santa Cruz de Tenerife, the PSOE also leads in the direct voting intentions, with 27 per cent, followed by Vox, with 16.5 per cent, and the PP, with 15.2 per cent.
6 per cent have opted for UPC and 3.3 per cent for CC-Primero Canarias.
The proportion of undecided voters stands at 21.1 per cent, almost four percentage points higher than in Las Palmas.
Pedro Sánchez leads in the poll on who people would prefer as Prime Minister
As regards the preferences of respondents in the Canary Islands regarding who should be the next Prime Minister, 30.8 per cent favour Pedro Sánchez, 20.5 per cent favour Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 16.8 per cent favour Santiago Abascal and 5.5 per cent favour Gabriel Rufián.
The CIS conducted the interviews between 7 and 30 October with 2,010 people in the Canary Islands, 1,033 in Las Palmas and 977 in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The technical data sheet puts the margin of error at 2.2 points for the Canary Islands as a whole, 3.1 for Las Palmas and 3.2 for Santa Cruz de Tenerife.
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